The power of wild cards

Wild cards are the term for extreme events that have a major impact on the world. The fall of the Berlin wall and 9/11 are some of the most salient examples of wild cards that had radical impact on all levels in the fabric of society. The nuclear disaster of … Continue reading

Five key advantages of scenario planning

Scenario planning is one of the most widely used tools of futurists in consulting organisations. In collaborative efforts with a stakeholder group, from within or outside of the organisation, multiple scenarios of different futures are generated. The main uncertainties of where the future might lead us, are often the main … Continue reading

40 Years of Shell scenarios

Shell is celebrating the 40th anniversary of their scenario thinking. From the start on, this forward thinking, as they claim, helps them to make crucial decisions. Indeed, Shell is a lighting example of how a company can incorporate scenario thinking in their organisation. At the celebration symposium they explained about … Continue reading

Lessons from “The black swan”, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The black swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb from 2007 was still on my reading list. Finally, a vacation to Egypt seemed the perfect time to read it. I will share here what I took out of The black swan, when I was rethinking its content looking over a translucent blue … Continue reading